AXA IM talking about a drop of 20 to 25 in 2009

Season results that soon opens in the United States and Europe is particularly scared investors. The managers and strategists expect net loons of the profits. "In the last four recessions, profits have declined by 35 at their peak", reminiscent of European makers of Bank of America - Merrill Lynch, which anticipate a decline of 40 (the peak), or even about 30 in 2009.

This early in the year of the annual perspectives, market specialists focus largely on concerns about profits.

Morgan Stanley provides a 43 fall in profits in Europe by end 2009 (including 33 this year). AXA IM talking about a drop of 20 to 25 in 2009. Schroders does not exclude a dive of the order of 30. Groupama AM envisages a 50 decline from the high point of 2007 ( 35 in 2009).

These expectations are still net offset with those of analysts, who traditionally tend to revise their estimates late: consensus table thus always on a slight increase in the profits of European companies in 2009 ( 2), according to FactSet (). "The difference between the prospects for early this year and actually published benefits can around 30 in times of crisis, said Pierre Sabatier, strategist at Pythagoras investment. There has already been revisions downward this year, but must await the annual publications of 2008 to see the bulk of the changes. The decline in profits especially affected the financial last year, now it will affect many sectors, including those related to raw materials.

The decline in profits in 2008 ( 17), in effect, was especially marked in financial services ( 86.8), insurance ( 49) and banks ( 47.6). But for 2009, consensus point a retreat on several cyclical sectors. In particular, automotive ( 37.4 after 23.6 in 2008), mining and metals ( 30.3) and the oil and gas ( 21.2 per cent) should be very affected.

Turnover under pressure

In contrast, profits on financial sectors are planned for sharp rise. "By removing the financial, the trend of 2009 profits would slightly negative in Europe according to consensus." "There is a lot of expenses in this segment in 2008, where the progressions high expected this year", said Fabrice Theveneau, responsible for research activities of Société Générale.

The trend is similar to the United States, where the kick-off of the wave of the quarterly publication must be given Monday by Alcoa. Analysts predict S & P 500 in profits from a P 10.1 back in 2008, then they saw an increase of 15.7 score from January 1 of last year. They then anticipate a slight erosion of profits ( 0.6), this year, with a decline marked in energy ( 29), according to the Thomson Reuters consensus.

Beyond profit, other indicators attest to the worsening of the crisis for companies. First, turnover should be also under pressure this year. Income aggregated across the DJ Stoxx 600 are planned for very slight decline in 2009. "But expected net setbacks to the turnover figures in many segments, related both to volume effects and to the fact that companies cannot increase their prices", said Marie - Pierre Peillon, responsible for financial and extra-financial Groupama AM analysis.

At the same time, the average cost of capital (WACC) is greater than the measured economic profitability by the "return on capital employed" ((Roce) Roce) in several sectors, note Corporation. "This means that the profitability that identifies a company is less than on capital employed: there is thus a destruction of value", repeats.