Of course forecasters continue to predict

Of course, forecasters continue to predict. Difficult to do otherwise when it is his job, when others want to know, when journalists call every day. And yet... The heart does not. Never exercise was also difficult for decades that the men attempt to predict the next year with more sophisticated tools. We are in a thick fog. A real pea purée. Even some of the more pieces patterns, or those in the more predictable activities, eventually admit in private: they do not know where they will be in six months. Experts from the French Observatory of economic conditions, more known as his small OFCE, speak at "radical uncertainty."

Of course, forecasters suggest figures. Next year, their estimates of growth for the France currently range from 0.8 to 0.7. But never their figures were more uncertain (and God knows if they are mistaken in the past!). For the France, the most reasonable range is somewhere between 3 and 0. The uncertainty is even stronger for the quantities resulting from this growth, as the deficit or unemployment. All those who give precise figures with safe air them are imposters. This fog condemns us it to appalling shipwreck in the storm, as one that tells Alphonse Daudet in "The agony of the"spirited"" "These mists, Sir, it is no doubt as traitor." Especially when there are case-sensitive in the tools. "To hit a cracking..." What is it What happens... "" The rudder comes from,"said a very wet seaman", tells Daudet. That will perhaps give tomorrow: "at hit a cracking..." What is it What happens... "Monetary policy has lost any effect," said a toughened banker of sweat.

In this fog, is distinguished from the pitfalls which the economic ship may be smash. The credit machine is broken. Bankers should heal the gaping wounds left by the follies past in their balance sheets, other lenders prefer to keep their pennies and borrowers no longer have enough confidence in the future to borrow. With this break, companies that produce expensive products, and that the French therefore buy on credit, will redeem a sharp fall in sales. This is the case of the automotive industry, entrepreneurs building and all of their suppliers. Here, the activity may lower than 10 next year. Banking, automotive and real estate sectors constituting them three probably about one-fifth of French productive activity, the shock ahead violent.

But if the France cash shocks, it also has powerful shock absorbers. First, the weight of the public sector, which will be assigned only to the margin by the crisis. The France has 7 million jobs in the "administered services." Social benefits (retirement, unemployment, etc.) provide 30 of the income of the French. Then, even if they will pay more attention, consumers will not stop to eat, dress, call and even to take a vacation. It remains a solid basement for consumption, which is by far the first engine of the activity. Declining raw material prices as oil will give a little air to the purchasing power. Similarly, companies will continue to buy machines (such as computers, which wear out quickly) and construct buildings despite the crisis. They will also continue to export. Airbus will always sell airplanes. The world will not disappear in 2009! Finally, the stimulus measures decided by Nicolas Sarkozy will have an impact. Of course, can always quibble: too little, too late, too poorly targeted. Can also be quibbling over the opportunity to further widen the chasm of public finances, or on the ability of the Government to blow up the devices when good times return. Spent billions will however have a positive effect on growth in the coming quarters.

Navigating the storm without see anything is scary. Next to the pitfalls, there may be traps, certainly the temptation to the cape and in any case a credit down. But there may also be carrying currents or benevolent winds. We are in the mist. Step into a black hole.