Levels that would have fear in person two years ago

If polls are to be believed, the probability is low that the Czechs today and tomorrow elections immediately stabilize the country politically. Yet, it would be necessary. Since March 2009 and the fall of the previous Government by voting for a motion of censure, the country is indeed headed by said transition Government, which essentially managed the day-to-day affairs, without addressing the reforms considered important.

Consequence of the trauma to the Communist Czech electoral system was built by strong by proportional representation, so as to guarantee the plurality of the political landscape, while the Constitution establishes a series of extremely elaborate balances. The reverse of the medal is the fragmentation of the lower House of Parliament. And the difficulty to establish stable coalitions among 200 members. Over the past twelve years, two Governments were in a minority compared to the National Assembly, and two others had interim functions. It also recalls that Mirek Topolanek, Prime Minister from 2006 to 2009, took seven months to form a Government.

This time, a new element is added to the structural causes of the electoral fragmentation: the rise, according to exit polls, several small parties, which appear to be set to "trim" the electoral base of the two main social democratic party (CSSD) and the Civic Democratic Party (ODS), right. The Communist Party, in particular, progresses, to the point that it could be one of the arbitrators of this election. Even if the Social Democrats are kept of consider it publicly, so this assumption could frighten a part of the Czech Republic, a coalition with the Communists, who have never ruled since 1989, part of the scenarios that the experts do not exclude.

In the business community, such an assumption does little delighted. Because in a time of storm Greek and concern about the debt public in euro area, many economists consider it urgent to Prague to take bold steps in public expenditure.

Public debt on the rise

This question was at the heart of the debates. The leader of the right, Petr Necas, believes that the left may make "untenable" the level of spending and fears that this "very likely" lead his country "to the Greek scenario." Jiri Paroubek, head of the CSSD, he argues that such an assertion is "economic nonsense", in view of the low country's debt.

The public debt, in absolute terms, is not disturbing: it was 30 of GDP in 2008. But the deficit was 5.9 last year in a context of strong contraction of GDP (4.9), public debt increased sharply. According to Tomas Vlk, analyst at the Institute Patria in Prague, the problem is now that "the end of the period of strong growth revealed that the bulk of the deficit is structural." Although if no reform is made to limit State spending, public debt should rise to 40 in a year or two and between 45 and 50 in five years". Levels that would have fear in person two years ago. This was before the Greek storm and the access of investors concern...