Iran events are difficult to interpret for Washington

Iran events are difficult to interpret for Washington. Is it a "divine surprise", which changes for the better the geopolitical situation in the whole region, or even divisions of Iranian society and the "democratic challenge" are they that introduce an element of uncertainty and additional complexity for America is committed to redefining its relationship with Tehran

Whatever happens tomorrow, these events are a setback for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Its permanent "provocations" are challenged by a significant part of Iranian society and will never have the same weight. Whose name is exprimet - it

But undeniable "defeat" probably equally embarrasses the Prime Minister of Israel that the Egyptian and American Presidents.

Binyamin Netanyahu, nothing has changed: the capabilities and the Iran nuclear ambitions remain intact. But the scenario of a "surgical" attack on nuclear facilities of the Iran, scenario to which very clearly opposed the United States, is even more unacceptable politically today than it was yesterday. It would result to reunite all of the Iranians against the aggressor. Hosni Mubarak, the relative weakening of Ahmadinejad's Iran is certainly good news, but the show of the popular and democratic challenge can only make nervous the Egyptian regime. And if the challenge part of Tehran earning tomorrow Cairo

For Barack Obama, the dilemma is of another nature. His speech at the University of Cairo, June 4, was part of a well-planned and comprehensive strategy which took in three points: transforming the image of the United States throughout the Arab and Muslim world, by treating with dignity and respect, and pointing out his personal empathy with islam and the "natural" existence of an American islam. put the Israeli-Palestinian conflict at the centre or at the top of the policy issues in the region, taking the risk of "save Israel of himself" and its safe drifts; Finally, and this was the size the more complex otherwise ambiguous its vision, create an alliance of "moderates" against "extremists" by reintroducing the hope in a world dominated by the humiliation, but this without really putting in question the non-democratic regimes in place nature.

The events taking place today in Iran introduce an element of disorder, which requires now a caution or a form of wait revealing one of the dimensions of the personality of Barack Obama, i.e. its tactical opportunism in this finely calibrated strategic vision. It cannot support too openly "on opening" candidate, Mir Hussein Moussavi, without taking the risk of weakening it, but it is not as if Ahmadinejad was still undisputed President and legitimate of the Iran, while the "green revolution" looks like "orange revolution", that mullahs openly join the camp of the challenge and that the leaders of the "Islamic revolution" appear infinitely more divided that we cannot think.

At the time where the Korea of the North engages in an escalation of provocations aimed no doubt to financial blackmail on the international community, of the genus "pay or I become more crazy that I am usually" challenge to elections bluntly and brutally distorted by a split regime and at Bay is to America as an opportunity and a warning, as a reminder of the strength of the real best plans.

Men make history, but do not know the story that they are, thought Hegel. Another way to say that they are not men who dictate the course of history and events.

But, after eight years of ideological improvisation and sheer scale under George w. Bush, America and the world probably need a new balance between more realistic ambitions and the more cautious steps. So far, the President of the United States was able to avoid the verbal and other mistakes. There is a time for the floor, but there also a short, necessarily, silence and waiting.